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On October 12, 2022, USDA lowered US soybean production and yield estimates slightly while keeping new-crop ending stocks at 200 million bushels. USDA raised China's 2022/23 import forecast to 98 million tonnes, and China bought 526,000 tonnes of US beans.
Wheat fell and corn was mixed after the report.
A tight US soybean balance and renewed Chinese buying support soybean and meal prices, though COVID lockdowns in China add demand uncertainty. Wheat weakness reflects a bearish reaction to the report.
brownfieldagnews.comOct 12, 2022After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
