
Pfizer reported its COVID-19 vaccine, developed with BioNTech, was over 90% effective in preventing infection, sending US and world equities to record highs. Crude oil jumped more than 10% on the news and improved trade expectations under Joe Biden.
A vaccine-driven demand recovery lifts energy prices and risk appetite, which can feed through to energy-linked feed costs and currencies. The effect on feed commodities is indirect and short-term.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Vaccine news sent equities to records and crude up sharply, with trade expectations under Biden adding to risk-on sentiment.