Global Refiners Can't Escape the COVID-19 Demand Cycle

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• May 18, 2021Canadian exporters rejig currency hedges as commodities boom - The Globe and Mail-0.2%
• Nov 15, 2019Canadian dollar recovers from one-month low as risk appetite climbs - The Globe and Mail+3.2%
• Feb 23, 2023Canadian dollar claws back some recent declines as oil rallies - The Globe and Mail+4.9%
• Feb 1, 2021Analysis: Global fuel prices jump as Asia, U.S. to rev up demand in 2Q+8.9%
• Nov 29, 2021Canadian dollar rallies as air of calm returns to financial markets - The Globe and Mail-11.3%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Feb 1, 2021Analysis: Global fuel prices jump as Asia, U.S. to rev up demand in 2Q+6.9%
• Nov 29, 2021Canadian dollar rallies as air of calm returns to financial markets - The Globe and Mail-3.1%
• Jan 18, 2024Oil prices rise on global demand forecasts, US crude stock draw+3.5%
• Nov 9, 2020OIL FUTURES: Oil prices surge as market eyes COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough | S&P Global+8.7%
• Nov 11, 2022Oil jumps as China eases COVID curbs in potential boost to demand-3.8%

After 11 past neutral macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.6% to +4.1%), and +3.9% over 20.

• Sep 17, 2020Secondary Market Demand Crucial to Diesel Recovery | Energy Intelligence-0.9%
• Jun 8, 2017Reduced downward margin - DHL Freight Connections-0.7%
• Feb 24, 2023Week in Review – February 24, 2023 - Mansfield Energy+6.1%
• Jan 30, 2020Marathon CEO predicts ‘stair-step’ of diesel margins in response to IMO 2020 - FreightWaves-2.6%
• Jun 17, 2021Weekly Energy Market Situation, June 14, 2021 - Fuels Market News+2.8%