Drought-breaking rains in eastern Australia are expected to lift wheat production about 80% to 28 million tonnes in 2020/21. Feed use of wheat is forecast at 4 million tonnes, and high Chinese tariffs are pushing more barley into domestic feed rations.
Bigger Australian wheat supply weighs on export prices, while lower domestic feed demand for wheat reduces the need for imports.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.