Widespread early-2020 rainfall has given Australia a good start to the grain sowing season after two years of drought. Wheat production is forecast to be over 50% higher than the prior year, and eastern feedlot regions have built substantial on-farm storage.
Abundant pasture and a larger grain crop reduce domestic demand for purchased feed, which weighs on Australian feed grain prices and export pricing.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.