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Australian wheat forecasts for 2020–21 have been lifted to 26.7 million tonnes, more than 75% above the prior year and the highest since 2016–17. Rains after a three-year drought have produced lush mid-season crops across eastern grain areas.
A bumper Australian wheat crop expands exportable supply and is bearish for world wheat prices, while boosting Australian farm demand for machinery and credit.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.