
Malaysian palm oil futures jumped about 3% on June 22 as the sharp fall earlier in June lifted Chinese import margins. Indonesia's announcement that it would cut its crude palm oil export levy ceiling to $175 per tonne from $255 capped gains.
Exports for June 1-20 rose 11.2% from a year earlier.
Improved Chinese import margins encourage buying and support prices, while Indonesia's lower levy lifts exporter margins and may increase export supply. The combined effect is bullish for palm oil in the near term.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.