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StoneX analyst Josh Linville expects a summer demand lull and says Chinese phosphate exports are set to return in early May, the world's largest phosphate exporter. He says global phosphate prices are starting to soften, though it is late in Australia's application season.
Returning Chinese export supply and a seasonal lull in demand point to lower DAP prices, with the benefit reaching Australian buyers mainly for later purchases.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleApr 1, 2024stonex.comJosh LinvilleApr 1, 2024stonex.comJosh LinvilleApr 1, 2024stonex.comJosh LinvilleApr 3, 2024After 480 past neutral trade events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 81 past bearish trade events, UREA moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
StoneX notes global phosphate prices softening, expects Chinese exports to return in early May, and anticipates a summer demand lull, all bearish for sentiment and prices.
StoneX notes global phosphate prices are softening and Chinese exports are due to return in early May, which weighs on sentiment and DAP prices.
Dated on the move day, it flags softening global phosphate prices, a summer demand lull and the return of Chinese phosphate exports in early May, a bearish supply and sentiment signal that could contribute to a DAP drop, though it can't explain a -9.8% one-day move alone.
StoneX notes global phosphate prices starting to soften and Chinese exports returning in May, implying more supply and a bearish outlook.
