A May 2024 IFPRI analysis reviews how global fertilizer trade adjusted from 2021 to 2023 after the Russia-Ukraine war price spikes. Russia and Belarus supplied about 40% of global potash trade in 2020, and Russia has increased exports of most fertilizer types except anhydrous ammonia.
Shifting trade routes and Russian export growth have eased fertilizer supply tightness, which tends to weigh on fertilizer prices and lower feed-production input costs over time.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.