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StoneX reports that global urea prices have declined faster and earlier than expected, and the market has not yet entered its usual summer lull in demand. The analyst expects continued pressure from production, the return of Chinese exports and weak demand.
Manufacturers may cut output for repairs, which could set a short-term floor.
Returning Chinese export supply and weak demand are pushing urea lower, but possible production cuts could limit the decline. Buyers should expect volatility around any supply disruptions.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleMay 1, 2024stonex.comJosh LinvilleApr 29, 2024After 81 past bearish trade events, UREA moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dated on the move date, it reports prices falling faster than expected, with the return of Chinese exports and weak demand adding pressure, which is consistent with continued selling.
StoneX expects continued downward pressure from production, returning Chinese exports and weak demand, reinforcing bearish sentiment around the date of the drop.
