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Hurricane Ida caused damage to urea and DAP supply chains, pushing Australian-dollar DAP from A$899 to A$970/t and urea from A$468 to A$585/t since mid-August. US prices have risen far above other origins such as the Middle East and China, widening the spread.
Prices do not include freight to Australia.
The widening US premium over other origins signals tight global nitrogen and phosphate supply, which supports fertilizer costs for feed producers. Whether the spike persists depends on how quickly US Gulf logistics recover.
airr.com.auETSep 20, 2021After 49 past bullish logistics events, UREA moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 31 past bullish logistics events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.9%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
