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The El Niño reached a record weekly sea surface temperature anomaly of +3.4°C in the central equatorial Pacific during October 19-25, 2026, according to NOAA data analysed by Meteored Brasil. The reading exceeds the previous +3.0°C benchmark from November 2015.
Analysts note that a single weekly reading does not confirm the event as the strongest on record.
A strong El Niño raises the risk of drought in Australia and Asia and changes rainfall in South America, which could support grain and oilseed prices into the 2027 season.
agrolatam.comMarcus EllingtonOct 31, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
