Wheat futures were modestly higher on Friday, with Chicago SRW up 1 to 2.5 cents, despite a merchant vessel being struck in the Black Sea and Russian missile strikes on Kyiv. USDA export commitments were 10.77 MMT, down 32% year on year.
Export commitments running well behind last year and the 5-year pace weigh on US wheat demand and cap upside for feed wheat.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.