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Middle East fertilizer exports fell 70% to 75%, with September shipments at 994,000 tonnes versus 3.41 million a year earlier, according to Kpler. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and attacks on vessels have made shipowners wary.
Sulphur costs have forced Mosaic to idle or slow phosphate plants.
The Gulf supplies a large share of seaborne urea and sulphur, so the export loss tightens global nitrogen, sulphur and phosphate supply. Analysts expect higher prices and smaller harvests in 2027.
capitaltimes.asiaCapital Times StaffOct 31, 2026
updater.newsOct 31, 2026After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
