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StoneX's Josh Linville says Iranian and Egyptian nitrogen production shut down after the strikes, removing the third and fourth largest urea exporters from the market. Global urea prices rose between 20 and 40 percent within days.
Supply tightness persists even though a ceasefire has been reached.
Losing two major exporters at once has pushed urea to sharply higher levels, and the tightness is expected to keep fertilizer prices elevated. Higher nitrogen costs also raise the cost of corn and other feed-grain production.
stonex.comGustian FarrowJun 24, 2025After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
