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A WTO report says the Middle East conflict has severely disrupted global fertiliser trade, with outbound fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz near zero since the conflict began. Urea fell back to about $453/mt in June after exceeding $850/mt in April, and DAP rose to roughly $770/mt.
Lost Gulf supply of nitrogen and phosphate raises input costs for farmers in import-dependent regions, which can cut application rates and later tighten crop supply.
just-food.comSatarupa BhowmikJul 14, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
