
Brazil's soybean crop is forecast at a record 145 million tonnes after near-ideal weather during planting and growing. Local soybean prices are sliding, farmers are holding back sales, and Brazilian beans are priced below U.S. supplies.
A record Brazilian crop and cheaper origin prices weigh on global soybean and meal prices and lower the cost of feed protein for buyers, though drought risks in Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina remain a possible upside.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.