China's imports of U.S. soybeans for the 2021/22 marketing year are expected to fall at least 20% from last season, to under 30 million tonnes. Hurricane Ida disrupted crop-loading at U.S. ports in September, cutting China-bound shipments 81% that month, while an early Brazil crop shortens the U.S. export window.
Weaker Chinese buying of U.S. beans leaves more supply for other buyers and pressures U.S. soybean export basis and futures, while Brazil's earlier harvest pulls demand toward South American origin.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.