
China is exporting record quantities of soybean meal, with exports near 600,000 tons in the first four months of 2024, almost five times the prior year's level. The shipments reflect a shrinking hog herd and weak domestic pork demand, leaving local soymeal prices near three-year lows.
Chinese soymeal exports add some supply to global markets, but they are small relative to Argentine and Brazilian exports of over 20 million tons each, so the price impact is limited while domestic weakness persists.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.