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StoneX's March 2024 phosphate outlook says global phosphate values are likely flat near term but could soften within about 60 days as demand dries up seasonally. It also cites signs that China is returning as a normal exporter.
North American phosphate prices are expected to fall, though likely after spring application season.
Resumed Chinese phosphate exports add supply to the global market just as seasonal demand fades, which points to lower DAP prices and weaker feed-phosphate costs ahead.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleMar 1, 2024stonex.comJosh LinvilleFeb 28, 2024stonex.comJosh LinvilleMar 1, 2024Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 176 past bullish trade events, UREA moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
