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StoneX's Josh Linville says urea prices should rally over the next month or two. Chinese urea exports remain absent, about 5M tonnes a year, and Iranian production is offline, removing roughly 4.8M tonnes of annual exports.
European output is still about 75% of normal.
Missing Chinese and Iranian supply plus European shortfalls tighten the global urea balance ahead of spring buying, which supports higher urea prices. Large Chinese stockpiles are a risk that could cap the rally.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleFeb 3, 2025After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output (~4.8 Mt/yr) and European output at ~75% of normal point to a supply-driven rally in the next month or two.
Published 2025-02-03, it highlights absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output and reduced European production, a supply-tightness narrative supporting a bullish repricing.
Absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output and reduced European production constrain supply, supporting the bullish outlook and price momentum.
