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Urea prices east of the Suez Canal are rising again as demand increases, with Europe CFR at $420-425/t and Southeast Asia FOB at $390/t. Several Iranian plants have shut or cut output, and India plans to cut its import urea budget for fiscal 2024-25.
Tight supply east of Suez and expected Indian tenders support urea prices through early March, while Chinese export returns could cap gains from April.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.