
UK ammonium nitrate producers returned to the market after withdrawing terms on 14 August, posting increases of £8/t over previous August, September and October prices. The September price has reached £225/t, and October is above it.
Indian urea demand, estimated at 1M tonnes per month through end-2020, is keeping global nitrogen prices firm, and Chinese supply in the latest tender rose.
Firm urea demand from India and higher UK ammonium nitrate prices raise fertilizer costs for grain and oilseed producers. Rising Chinese urea supply is a possible offsetting factor that could ease prices later.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.