
MMTC, India's state purchasing agency, issued its fourth urea tender since April, closing 17 July, and may seek up to 1M tonnes for August shipment. Recent tenders bought about 600,000t each, and a recent RCF tender secured only about 100,000t from China.
Commentators doubt China has enough inventory for the shipping window.
A large Indian tender against limited Chinese export availability points to firmer global urea prices and higher nitrogen input costs.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.