
Profercy's World Nitrogen Index rose 12.85 points to 336.68 as urea fob values advanced on concerns over Russian supply disruption from possible sanctions. Egyptian urea sold up to $130/t higher and US Gulf barge values jumped over $150/st before easing.
Fear of losing Russian urea, nearly 14% of global trade, is lifting nitrogen prices and tightening availability for buyers in the coming weeks.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.