
The dollar index fell 0.57% to 97.861 as peace talks optimism faded and investors shifted focus to inflation and rate expectations. Euro strength followed a rally after Russia pledged to reduce attacks on Kyiv, and German inflation hit a 40-year high in March.
JPMorgan recommended buying EUR/USD while the U.S. said it had seen no real seriousness from Russia.
A softer dollar supports dollar-priced commodities and can lift U.S. export competitiveness, while rate-hike expectations in Europe reinforce currency moves. Feed buyers face mixed signals from currency swings tied to geopolitics and inflation.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.