
The euro strengthened against the dollar on November 1 after Euro Zone inflation hit a record 10.7%, prompting ECB President Lagarde to say rate hikes must continue even with rising recession risks. The dollar weakened as Treasury yields fell ahead of the Fed's two-day meeting.
Expectations of further ECB hikes combined with a softer dollar lift the euro, which tends to lower the dollar cost of US commodity imports priced in dollars for European buyers and can support US export competitiveness only marginally.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.