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Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr says government forecasters now see a 53% chance La Niña persists through June-August, up from about 20% in December. Summer outlooks call for above-normal temperatures across nearly the whole US and below-normal precipitation from central Illinois westward, with 36% of corn acres already in drought.
Growing odds of a hot, dry US summer raise the likelihood of a weather rally in corn and soybeans, which feed buyers should price into spring purchasing.
farmprogress.comBryce KnorrMar 21, 2022After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
