
OPEC+ agreed to stick with its existing policy and raise output by 432,000 bpd from May, with the next meeting set for May 5. The US had urged a faster increase as high energy prices fuel inflation.
A modest OPEC+ increase leaves crude supply tight relative to demand, supporting energy and freight costs for feed producers. Recent price declines reduce the chance of larger output increases.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.