
OPEC+ agreed to add 430,000 bpd of output from May, sticking to its modest schedule despite consumer pressure. Brent crude fell about 6% toward $107 per barrel on the day.
Limited OPEC+ supply additions keep crude tight, supporting energy costs that feed into diesel, fertilizer and freight for feed producers. The IEA data dispute adds uncertainty about reported compliance and supply figures.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.