OPEC Output May Be Stretched to Limit by Supply Crises, IEA Says

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• May 16, 2020OPEC+ Supply Cuts: Latest Oil Market News on Output Status - Bloomberg+8.6%
• Mar 30, 2022OPEC+ sticks to modest oil output rises, ditches IEA data-4.4%
• Nov 3, 2024OPEC+ Delays Supply Restart Again as Crude Prices Struggle - Bloomberg+0.8%
• Feb 10, 2023OPEC+ Won’t Increase Oil Production Despite Russia Output Cut, Delegates Say - Bloomberg+0.6%
• Nov 1, 2020Oil Climbs With Russia in Talks on Delaying OPEC+ Output Hike - Bloomberg+5.1%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• May 16, 2020OPEC+ Supply Cuts: Latest Oil Market News on Output Status - Bloomberg+13.5%
• Mar 30, 2022OPEC+ sticks to modest oil output rises, ditches IEA data-2.2%
• Nov 3, 2024OPEC+ Delays Supply Restart Again as Crude Prices Struggle - Bloomberg+1.3%
• Feb 10, 2023OPEC+ Won’t Increase Oil Production Despite Russia Output Cut, Delegates Say - Bloomberg+0.5%
• Mar 27, 2023Oil Holds Surge as Supply Disruption Adds to Market Optimism - Bloomberg+9.3%