OPEC+ Delays Supply Restart Again as Crude Prices Struggle

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 9, 2026Crop Prices Jump as War Snarls Trade and Risks Tightening Supply - Bloomberg+8.5%
• Sep 15, 2019Crude Oil Prices Surge Most Ever After Attack Cuts Saudi Supplies - Bloomberg+5.8%
• Apr 3, 2022Oil Prices Don’t Fully Reflect Russian Supply Risks, Says Vitol - Bloomberg-1.0%
• Jul 12, 2018OPEC Output May Be Stretched to Limit by Supply Crises, IEA Says - Bloomberg-2.4%
• Jul 31, 2026Supply Disruptions Underpin Crude Oil Prices-7.4%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 15, 2019Crude Oil Prices Surge Most Ever After Attack Cuts Saudi Supplies - Bloomberg+6.6%
• Apr 3, 2022Oil Prices Don’t Fully Reflect Russian Supply Risks, Says Vitol - Bloomberg-3.1%
• Jul 12, 2018OPEC Output May Be Stretched to Limit by Supply Crises, IEA Says - Bloomberg-3.6%
• Mar 2, 2022Oil price rises again as buyers shun Russian crude+21.0%
• Jul 31, 2026Supply Disruptions Underpin Crude Oil Prices-4.9%