Oil Prices Don’t Fully Reflect Russian Supply Risks, Says Vitol

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 20, 2022Oil Surges On Growing Supply Fears as EU Considers Russian Ban - Bloomberg+9.5%
• Nov 3, 2024OPEC+ Delays Supply Restart Again as Crude Prices Struggle - Bloomberg+0.8%
• Sep 19, 2019Oil prices rise as Saudi supply risks come into focus-2.4%
• Mar 31, 2025Oil prices climb 2% to five-week high on Russia, Iran supply worries-9.7%
• Mar 28, 2023Oil prices rise on Kurdish supply risks and banking relief | Reuters+10.2%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 20, 2022Oil Surges On Growing Supply Fears as EU Considers Russian Ban - Bloomberg+10.3%
• Nov 3, 2024OPEC+ Delays Supply Restart Again as Crude Prices Struggle - Bloomberg+1.3%
• Mar 9, 2026Crop Prices Jump as War Snarls Trade and Risks Tightening Supply - Bloomberg+8.5%
• Sep 19, 2019Oil prices rise as Saudi supply risks come into focus-3.0%
• Mar 31, 2025Oil prices climb 2% to five-week high on Russia, Iran supply worries-10.5%