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UBS expects European bond yields to fall next year and the euro to recover against the dollar, arguing that Christine Lagarde's early resignation, effective February 7, 2027, will not change ECB policy. The ECB has raised rates twice this year with inflation near double its 2% target.
UBS sees a December hike as possible but expects the bank to wait for clearer evidence of persistent inflation.
A stronger euro and a stable ECB path would lift the euro's value against the dollar, which affects the cost of dollar-priced feed ingredients imported into Europe. Expectations of further tightening also shape European financing costs.
au.investing.comSimon MugoNov 1, 2026
investing.comSimon MugoNov 1, 2026After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
