The Australian dollar and euro rallied on Monday as traders priced in possible hawkish shifts from the RBA and ECB. AUD had fallen to a 1.5-year low the prior week and rebounded on short covering, with the euro boosted by stronger German inflation data.
Currency moves tied to central bank expectations shift the dollar's broad strength, which affects export competitiveness and the dollar-denominated price of grains and oilseeds.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.