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Global natural gas prices are rising to levels not seen in over a decade, with Russia's war in Ukraine blamed for high European energy prices. The scramble for non-Russian supply has pushed U.S. prices to roughly double since the start of the year.
The analysis suggests much of the price is a risk premium rather than a physical shortage, so prices could ease if supply fears fade, but spikes remain possible while the war continues. Higher gas feeds into nitrogen fertilizer costs.
energypolicy.columbia.eduApr 19, 2022After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
