
Asian spot LNG prices rose above $30/mmBtu, the highest since December 2022, after an LNG carrier was approached by a small boat in the Red Sea and crew fired warning shots. A Qatar-sourced cargo was still transiting the Red Sea toward Poland, and EU storage sits near 74%.
Shipping risk in the Red Sea and Qatari supply disruption tighten global LNG, supporting gas prices and raising the cost of gas-fired fertilizer and feed-processing inputs.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.