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Grain logistics face multiple strains, including soaring fuel prices after the Russia-Ukraine war, weeks-long rail delays for Southwest hard red winter wheat, and new COVID shutdowns in China. A major US West Coast port labor contract is also nearing expiration.
Rail delays and possible port labor disruption can hold back US grain movements and widen basis spreads, while higher fuel costs raise transport costs for feed buyers.
farmingportal.co.zaMay 1, 2022After 22 past bullish logistics events, KWHEAT moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +3.9% over 20.
After 26 past bullish logistics events, WTI moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.1% to +9.5%), and +2.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
