Three Signs Show That Argentina Is Heading to a Devaluation

After 44 past bullish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (34% higher; middle half -1.9% to +0.9%), and -2.9% over 20.

• Aug 1, 2025Argentine Peso Posts Worst Month Since Milei’s 2023 Devaluation+3.3%
• May 21, 2018What multinationals should monitor in the aftermath of Argentina’s peso crash+1.1%
• Aug 12, 2019Argentina farmers digest primary election shock, wait to export despite weaker peso-0.6%
• Nov 1, 2019Argentina imposes more money exchange restrictions to defend reserves — MercoPress+0.4%
• Mar 31, 2023Argentina's dollars drain fastest since 2019 as IMF decision looms | Kitco News-0.7%

After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.

• Mar 19, 2019Argentina Is Anxious for Soy Dollars. Farmers Won’t Play Ball - Bloomberg-0.3%
• Feb 28, 2017Trump Was Going to Kill Mexico’s Peso. It’s Doing Just Fine - Bloomberg+0.9%
• Jul 25, 2023Argentine IMF concessions risk further fueling red hot inflation-13.4%
• Jan 27, 2026Dollar sinks to four-year low as intervention risk lifts yen-0.7%
• Oct 30, 2024Argentina's Milei Taps Unseasonal Source in Search of Dollars: Shock Therapy | Financial Post+0.8%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.