Argentina farmers digest primary election shock, wait to export despite weaker peso

After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Apr 11, 2021Argentine farmers, facing peso uncertainty, hoard soya despite high prices - Markets - Business Recorder+2.2%
• May 16, 2018‘Start selling so dollars come in,’ Argentine soybean farmers are told+1.2%
• Apr 26, 2023Muddle-through is not enough for Argentina as peso faces fresh pressure | Financial Post-0.4%
• May 7, 2021Fed's super-easy policy likely to stick after weak jobs report+0.4%
• Apr 13, 2023China's exports rise unexpectedly, but economists warn of weakness ahead+0.1%

After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2019Argentina imposes more money exchange restrictions to defend reserves — MercoPress+0.4%
• Jun 4, 2018FoodFarmNews: China’s pig farmers plan to produce mega hog-farms to meet demands of world’s biggest pork market-2.0%
• Apr 26, 2023Muddle-through is not enough for Argentina as peso faces fresh pressure | Financial Post-2.1%
• Apr 26, 2023Argentina: A desperate search for a door as currency tumbles | AP News-2.1%
• Mar 31, 2023Argentina's dollars drain fastest since 2019 as IMF decision looms | Kitco News-1.2%

After 44 past bullish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (34% higher; middle half -1.9% to +0.9%), and -2.9% over 20.

• Apr 11, 2021Argentine farmers, facing peso uncertainty, hoard soya despite high prices - Markets - Business Recorder-0.1%
• May 16, 2018‘Start selling so dollars come in,’ Argentine soybean farmers are told-1.3%
• Aug 1, 2025Argentine Peso Posts Worst Month Since Milei’s 2023 Devaluation+3.3%
• Jun 29, 2022Three Signs Show That Argentina Is Heading to a Devaluation - Bloomberg-1.1%
• Nov 1, 2019Argentina imposes more money exchange restrictions to defend reserves — MercoPress+0.4%