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Class III and Class IV milk futures fell sharply from July 1 to July 15, 2022, with Class III dropping nearly $2.30 per cwt. Analysts cite rising interest rates, recession fears and consumer spending pullback as drivers.
Lower milk futures signal weaker dairy product values, which reduces the value of dairy feed inputs and pressures dairy producer margins.
After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.