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Dairy economist Bob Cropp estimated that about 10% too much milk exists because COVID-19 cut restaurant and school sales of cheese and butter. Butter, block and barrel cheese, and nonfat dry milk prices all dropped sharply from January to April 22.
A roughly 10% surplus against collapsed foodservice demand drives Class III and other milk prices lower, and processors are cutting intake to rebalance.
farmprogress.comFran O'LearyApr 24, 2020After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Estimate of a roughly 10% milk oversupply and sharp declines in cheese, butter and NFDM prices through April 22 point to the supply-demand imbalance behind the selloff.
