
Grain prices have fallen from near-record earlier in the year as investors reduced exposure. Drought and heat in the High Plains have stressed corn and soybean fields, and USDA projects a corn yield of 177 bushels per acre.
Dryness also affects Argentina, Brazil and parts of Europe.
Continued dryness across major exporters supports corn and soybean prices into the back half of the year, which raises feed input costs even after the recent decline.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.