
EU crop monitor MARS said grain crops were mainly in good condition by mid-February. Excess moisture in France and dryness in Eastern Europe, particularly western Romania and Bulgaria, remain risks, with possible spring resowing.
Crop damage so far is limited compared with eastern Ukraine, Morocco and Algeria.
Good EU crop ratings limit near-term wheat and barley supply concerns, but wet French fields and dry Eastern Europe leave downside risk to yields that could firm wheat prices if weather worsens.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.