
Africa Confidential reports that Morocco's OCP is using phosphate supplies in diplomacy, giving away 180,000 tonnes and discounting another 350,000 tonnes to African farmers. The article says the Ukraine war is expected to cut global fertiliser output by 7% over the next year and push up fertiliser costs in Africa.
A projected 7% fall in global fertiliser output combined with rising import costs supports phosphate and fertiliser prices, while discounted OCP supplies provide only limited relief.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.