The yuan fell below 6.9 per dollar early on Monday after Fed chair Powell said rates would stay high until inflation falls. The yuan is on track for its biggest monthly drop since April, and the PBOC midpoint was set weaker than the previous fix but firmer than expected.
A stronger dollar lifts the cost of dollar-denominated commodities for Chinese importers and tends to pressure US grain and oilseed prices, while the firmer fix hints at official resistance to further yuan weakness.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.