AHDB's weekly arable report says hot, dry weather in the US and EU is tightening the maize outlook. The USDA rated 54% of US maize in good or excellent condition as of 28 August, and the EU Commission cut its maize estimate from 65.8Mt to 59.3Mt.
Agritel sees French maize at 10.8Mt, the smallest crop this century.
Lower EU and US maize output tightens feed grain supplies and supports maize prices, which in turn lend support to wheat and barley. Feed buyers should expect firmer prices while weather remains the key driver.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.