
Wheat rose last week in all three US markets on dryness in Russia and parts of the US and wet conditions in Europe. Russia's government is tightening control over exporters, and weak export sales continue amid large Black Sea and EU supplies.
Chart levels were given for Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis.
Russian export controls and weather risk could tighten global wheat supply, but large world stocks and low export prices keep the upside limited.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.