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Heavy rain halted wheat harvest in Argentina's northern production region, and frost and hail hit crops further south. The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its wheat production estimate to 18.7 million tonnes, down 3.6% from its November estimate of 19.4 million.
Lower Argentine output and weaker quality tighten exportable wheat supplies, which supports world wheat prices and feed-wheat alternatives.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.