
New-crop barley values rose up to £13/t in the week to 21 July 2021 as harvest began and some export business was done. London November wheat futures jumped £16/t over seven trading days.
Drought in parts of the US and Canada, flood damage in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, and Russian harvest cuts supported the rally.
Lower-than-expected crop prospects in major exporters and tight stocks lift feed grain costs for UK buyers, and the feed barley-wheat spread is narrowing as supply tightens.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
New-crop barley and wheat futures rallied on North American drought, European flooding and Russian crop cuts, a broad supply-driven grain rally just before the move.